Canadian conservatives' Trump Problem

It's getting bigger

By conventional metrics, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre is not in trouble. On the contrary—polls suggest that the country continues to be exhausted with the Liberals and eager for change. The announced departure of Justin Trudeau has removed the biggest lightning rod for criticism, but that underlying foundation—a population tired of the incumbent government, and supporting the Conservatives in polls to the tune of 45%, clear majority government territory—has not changed.

What has changed, however, is the ground on which that foundation has been laid. Poilievre continues to frame the election-to-come as an “axe the tax” election, suggesting that the ballot box question will be the carbon tax, and the broader frustrations with affordability and a perception of ineffectual virtue signalling that the issue taps into.

The thing is though, that’s almost certainly not going to be what the election-to-come will be about. It’s going to be about Trump, and Trump’s threat of a tariff on Canada. Whatever failings Donald Trump has, his one surpassing skill is his ability to make everything about him, and the Canadian election of 2025 will be no exception.

This is becoming an issue for Poilievre, and the longer he takes to move more decisively on it, the bigger that problem will get. The laser-like focus on the unpopular carbon tax, combined with a tendency to turn every other conversation into a story about how it’s really the Liberals’ fault, might be sound strategy in a normal “throw the bums out” election. Given the growing number of voters looking forward with fear, however, rather than backward with anger, such a strategy risks making Poilievre and the Conservatives seem out of step with the concerns of Canadians.

No doubt, part of Poilievre’s reticence to come out more forcefully with some kind of Captain Canada-style “all options are on the table to counter this threat” statement is the fact that conservatives themselves are divided on the issue of Trump. David Colletto of Abacus Data published some interesting new polling on this issue this morning (incidentally beating me to the title I originally wanted to use for this post). Among other interesting results, David zeros in on the fact that 15% of Canadians (up to 1/3rd of Conservative voters, in other words) have positive views of Poilievre, but negative views of Trump.

At the same time, the populist wing of the conservative movement in Canada tends to look at the United States, and Trump in particular, with enthusiasm—so much so that 1 in 4 Conservative supporters would be open to considering a union between Canada and the US. Torn between the two groups, Poilievre has been slow to articulate a clear position against Trump, and endorse the idea of a full trade war in defence of the national interest, with all options on the table (including energy restrictions). Indeed, at times Poilievre has even borrowed from Trumpian rhetoric, for instance to suggest a need to Make Canada Great Again.

This lack of federal Conservative leadership on how to respond has left the field open to other conservative politicians to define a conservative path. They have done so with gusto, and in different directions. On the one hand, Ontario Progressive Conservative Premier Doug Ford has sketched out a classic conservative position on the issue—a combination of free trade promotion, appeals to shared Canadian and American interests, and when all else fails a staunch willingness to defend Canadian sovereignty. Above all, he’s willing to wrap himself in the hat flag and stand up for the national interest, even if it comes at a cost. You could imagine Brian Mulroney or Stephen Harper saying much the same thing in their time.

On the other hand, there’s Alberta Premier Danielle Smith of the United Conservative Party, articulating an alternative perspective—effectively arguing that Canada should hop aboard the Trump train, do what the president asks (never mind the federal government already pledged more than $1 billion in funding to do so, to no effect), and not retaliate meaningfully to defend our country’s economy even if the US follows through on its tariff threat.

As long as it was just Smith and Alberta taking such a stance, it might be treated as an outlier. With Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe coming out against retaliatory tariffs from his province as well, however, one cannot so easily do so.

Simply put, the fault line that divides Canadians on the most important question facing the country once again runs right through the conservative political movement. Shades of 2021 all over again, when things like climate change and the pandemic response tended to unite progressives and divide conservatives. This time, however, the health of the Canadian economy and the nature of Canada’s identity hang in the balance.

Thus, we come to Mr. Poilievre’s problem. The premiers have left him little wiggle room between conservative voting factions. History suggests he would prefer to look for a way to plant his flag on the more populist (in this case, the pro-Trumpian) side of the divide and then search for ways to bring more mainstream Canadians over to that view. He was able to do that effectively in prosecuting the case against the carbon tax, for instance, and has found other creative ways to speak to different audiences. In this situation though, that would mean convincing mainstream Canadians not to fight back against a bully threatening a 25% tariff. Your mileage may vary, but I don’t think that will fly with most Canadians.

And if American tariffs ever do materialize, even some populist-leaning conservatives may start to reconsider whether Trump does, in fact, have Canada’s best interests at heart. Indeed, Trump’s bald declaration that the U.S. doesn’t need Canada’s oil should get even get the attention of Canadians who look at the new president favourably—he is not Canada’s leader, and his interests are not Canada’s interests.

The good news is that there is are better answers to the challenge, and models that Poilievre—and any other politician aspiring to lead the country—can follow. Former prime ministers Harper and Chretien, and Premier Ford have mapped out a pretty effective tool kit, there for any politician of any party to follow who cares to do so. Simply put, become Captain Canada. Put your back into pushing back against President Trump’s false claims about the northern border and the Canada-US relationship just as Stephen Harper did. Make it clear how tariffs will hurt Americans, just as Jean Chrétien has. Make the case to Americans how much better off Canada and the US are when they work together, just as Doug Ford is doing.

Above all, make it clear that Canada will not be pushed around. A bully doesn’t leave you alone after you do what they demand. They leave you alone when it’s clear that you won’t.

Nearly 40 years ago, a Conservative prime minister sought out free trade with the US. Prime Ministers since have done what they could to safeguard that relationship, now the bedrock of Canadian economic prosperity. Anyone who wants the job in the 2020s must make it clear they will continue to safeguard that prosperity using every tool in the toolbox. If you’re asking Canadians to stand up for you, make it clear you’ll stand up for them.

Cover image: Gage Skidmore, CC BY-SA 3.0 <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0>, via Wikimedia Commons.

This has been lightly edited from the original to catch a couple of typos that were really, really bugging me.