It’s not just Justin Trudeau’s message. Young people are abandoning him because the social contract is broken

And Pierre Poilievre has their ear as to how to fix it.

Earlier this month, I had an op-ed in The Star building on my previous arguments about the populist moment, looking at how Pierre Poilievre in particular has captured the mood effectively.

Here’s the link to the original piece, and here’s the text:

Incumbent governments around the world are in trouble, and some parties are hitting the panic button as a result. Alongside dramatic electoral results in the U.K. and France, in just the last few weeks we’ve seen heated debates emerge around the leadership of both Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and U.S. President Joe Biden. Members of both leaders’ parties have called for each to step aside, hinting at much sharper feedback behind the scenes.

Tempting as it is to blame the leader — and polls suggest both are increasing liabilities to their respective parties — widen the lens and we see a broader pattern emerging. To paraphrase Marshall McLuhan, the problem may be as much with the message as the medium.

Around the world, support is bleeding away from centrist incumbents, with young and socio-economically marginalized voters leading the exodus. Even more notable, in many jurisdictions they are looking to populist leaders, including those on the right, for answers. Simply put, many voters at the political and economic margins have concluded that the social contract is no longer functioning, and more radical change is therefore warranted.

While speculation regarding Trudeau’s future hit a fever pitch following the party’s devastating byelection loss in Toronto—St. Paul’s last month, that result followed months of poor polling results. Those same polls made it clear that the party isn’t just losing out to the typical Conservative voting coalition. Young voters, a source of strength for the Liberals in recent years are abandoning the party in large numbers, and turning right as they do. Indeed, in recent surveys a plurality of 18—34-year-olds have indicated support for Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative party.

Poilievre, for his part, has demonstrated a continual ability to tap into those frustrations even when doing so appears to take him outside the mainstream of Canadian political views.

For instance, his endorsement of crypto currencies was widely ridiculed among mainstream commentators. Less noticed as a result was the way Poilievre was able to demonstrate solidarity with Canadians who look to such investments as a way to get ahead, however risky, as the normal paths to prosperity seemed ever more out of reach. For those with little to lose, a slim chance at a windfall is better than none at all.

Likewise, in showing support for the goals of the Ottawa Convoy turned occupation, Poilievre walked a delicate but important line. His stance frustrated many Canadians worried about the pandemic and angry at the protesters. For those who were themselves frustrated with the seemingly endless restrictions however, his stance was more welcome. An Ipsos poll at the time found nearly half of Canadians, and more than 60 per cent of Canadians aged 18-34, sympathized with the protest and found their frustrations legitimate, even if they found some of its tactics and positions problematic. That was not an insignificant group, and Poilievre found a way to show his solidarity with them, while daring his opponents to highlight the resulting association with the more extreme views on display in the nation’s capital.

Above all, however, it is the focus on housing that has allowed the Conservative party leader to tap into the frustrations of a generation of Canadians who feel left behind, and who don’t feel heard by the powers that be. Poilievre’s simple, populist stance against the “gatekeepers” in Ottawa is a powerful message. For those who feel left behind, simply being seen is a welcome change. Important questions regarding the likely effect of Conservative proposals on the issue are of secondary importance.

If centrist parties in Canada and elsewhere hope to regain support and rebuild relationships with young and otherwise marginalized voters, a new leader is not going to be enough. They’re going to have to acknowledge the mistakes that have been made to get us to this point and find ways to credibly commit to doing what’s necessary to help people, young as well as old, feel seen and heard, and provided the opportunity to thrive in the years to come.